Signs of hope and brighter prospects
ESTONIA
GDP revised up
2012 2013 2014
3.2% 3.0% 4.0% (Feb 2013)
2.5% 3.1% (Nov 2012)
Unemployment
10.0% 9.8% 9.0% (Feb 2013)
Estonia is growing strongly. Export growth, which slowed last year, is expected to pick up again. The proportion of the labour force in a job remains at an all-time high. A deficit of 0.5% of GDP is forecast for 2012, much better than the 2.6% target.
FINLAND
GDP revised down for 2013, up for 2014
2012 2013 2014
-0.1% 0.3% 1.2% (Feb 2013)
0.1% 0.8% (Nov 2012)
Unemployment
7.7% 8.0% 7.9% (Feb 2013)
A slow recovery is under way that will continue through to 2014. Private consumption will decrease in 2013 because of VAT and income tax rises but get better in 2014. The labour market remains relatively strong. Central government deficit should decrease to 1.3% of GDP in 2014.
GERMANY
GDP revised down
2012 2013 2014
0.7% 0.5% 2.0% (Feb 2013)
0.8% 0.8% (Nov 2012)
Unemployment
5.5% 5.7% 5.6% (Feb 2013)
The European Commission describes Germany’s current downturn as a “temporary setback” and predicts that a gradual recovery will soon be experienced thanks to the fundamentals of the German economy, notably the robust labour market and strong competitiveness. The deficit is forecast to be eliminated in 2014. The return of confidence is supported by an increase in industrial orders from abroad.
IRELAND
GDP revised up
2012 2013 2014
0.7% 1.1% 2.2% (Feb 2013)
0.4% 1.1% (Nov 2012)
Unemployment
14.8% 14.6% 14.1% (Feb 2013)
Growth will be stronger than predicted for the first eurozone member state expected to leave an EU-International Monetary Fund financial-support programme. The fall in sovereign-bond yields is further good news. Unemployment is still high but will slowly decline; export performance is likely to remain fairly weak. The fiscal deficit is expected to be better than targets in each of the next three years. The Commission describes the Irish economy now as “relatively resilient”.
LATVIA
GDP revised up
2012 2013 2014
5.3% 3.8% 4.1% (Feb 2013)
4.3% 3.6% (Nov 2012)
Unemployment
14.9% 13.7% 12.2% (Feb 2013)
Another Baltic success story. Growth has remained strong and has beaten expectations amid low inflation and robust public finances. Domestic demand and exports are driving growth and the country’s economy remains one of the fastest growing in Europe. Unemployment is quite high but falling as companies complain of skills shortages. The 2012 deficit ratio, an expected 1.5% of GDP, is significantly better than the target.
LITHUANIA
GDP revised up
2012 2013 2014
3.6% 3.1% 3.6% (Feb 2013)
2.9% 3.1% (Nov 2012)
Unemployment
13.0% 11.4% 9.8% (Feb 2013)
Domestic demand has slowed but, thanks to very high net exports, growth remains steady. Unemployment, while high, is falling. A public-sector wage freeze has been extended to 2013 as the deficit continues to narrow.
MALTA
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GDP revised down
2012 2013 2014
1.0% 1.5% 2.0% (Feb 2013)
1.0% 1.6% (Nov 2012)
Unemployment
1.7% 1.7% 1.9% (Feb 2013)
Growth is gathering pace after slowing down at the start of 2012. Strong exports, a healthy tourism sector, a resilient labour market and sustained growth in financial markets are all contributing to economic growth.
SWEDEN
GDP revised down
2012 2013 2014
1.0% 1.3% 2.7% (Feb 2013)
1.1% 1.9% (Nov 2012)
Unemployment
7.7% 8.0% 7.8% (Feb 2013)
Recession has been avoided, and although weakening economic sentiment has been felt since the autumn, recovery is expected in the second half of 2013, regaining its dynamism in 2014. The labour market is weak and inflation is below the official target.