Approval of new treaty uncertain

Possibility of parliamentary disapproval and the need for referenda place question marks over EU’s new economic treaty.

Nine of the ten EU member states that do not use the euro said today that they might eventually join the 17 eurozone states in signing an inter-governmental treaty intended to tighten fiscal discipline.

The one exception is the UK, which said it was not prepared to accept the EU’s existing treaty being changed to accommodate the set of proposals put forward to increase and improve governance of the eurozone. Its position obliged the rest of the EU to draw up a separate legal framework to accommodate the proposals.

Herman Van Rompuy, the president of the European Council, said he was “optimistic” that the nine member states would participate in the treaty, whose purpose is to restore market confidence in the euro.

Jerzy Buzek, the president of the European Parliament, characterised the situation as “26 versus one”, but insisted this was still a good result and “we are a united European Union”.

But it remained unclear at the end of the two-day European Council whether all nine non-eurozone members – and all members of the eurozone – would eventually sign the treaty.

An initial deal on creating a new treaty early this morning had the backing of the 17 eurozone member states, plus four member states outside the eurozone: Poland, Romania, Latvia and Lithuania.

Consultation needed

Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary and Sweden later also approved continued work on the treaty, but said they will first need to consult their parliaments before being able to sign it.

Frederik Reinfeldt, Sweden’s prime minister, appeared to be leaning against adopting the treaty, saying that “if you read the text, [joining] would seem a bit odd, because it would seem as if you were part of the euro”. He said that the legal implications for Sweden needed to be analysed before he could agree to sign it.

Petr Nečas, the Czech prime minister, indicated that his country’s backing was very provisional. He said he had concerns over how much power and control the European Commission would have over national budgets, pointing also to uncertainties about tax harmonisation, social policies and the role of the EU’s institutions.

He added that he and Reinfeldt have been co-ordinating their positions “very closely”.

Hungarian officials said they did not have a mandate from their parliament to accept an inter-governmental agreement at this summit, having only obtained authorisation to accept treaty change. A new mandate from the parliament will be needed.

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Similarly, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, Denmark’s prime minister, said she did not yet have a mandate to agree to the new treaty.

“We haven’t said yes to participate,” she said, saying that she would now have to consult the parliament over whether Denmark should sign up.

Thorning-Schmidt added that she could not rule out at this point that a national referendum would be needed.

The prime minister of a country that has twice vetoed EU treaties in the past – Ireland’s Enda Kenny – refused to be drawn on whether he would call a referendum. He said that Ireland’s attorney-general will be asked to issue a formal legal opinion.

Lucinda Creighton, Ireland’s European affairs minister, had earlier said that there was a 50:50 chance of a referendum. Under Ireland’s constitution, new EU laws that lead to a loss of sovereignty have to be approved by referendum votes.

EU officials and diplomats say it is unclear how long it will take to ratify the new treaty.

However, Van Rompuy said he hoped the countries would hold consultations with their national parliaments “rather rapidly”, so that plans could be made to sign the so-called ‘fiscal compact’ treaty by March at the latest.

The Czech Republic, which was the last EU member state to ratify the Lisbon treaty in 2009, said there was no “deadline” for approval, only “milestones”.

“Everything depends on the content of the treaty,” Nečas said.